THE ANALYSIS OF YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT IN TÜRKİYE UNDER THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 WITHIN THE FRAMEWORK OF UNEMPLOYMENT HYSTERESIS AND THE NATURAL RATE OF UNEMPLOYMENT

Authors : Ali İhsan Balcı

Pages : 411-430

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Publication Date : 2025-01-30

Article Type : Research Paper

Abstract :The research looks into the lasting impacts of youth unemployment rates in Türkiye after Covid-19 to comprehend the condition of the labor market. The goal is to assess whether the effect is enduring or short-lived, examining the credibility of the hysteresis theory or the natural rate theory in regards to Türkiye\\\'s youth unemployment rates. Changes in the structure of Türkiye\\\'s labor market were noticed prior to, during, and following the pandemic. Different statistical tests were employed to examine these changes, revealing that economic disturbances, particularly during times of crisis, have a persistent impact on the rates of unemployment among young people in Türkiye. The research indicates that the impacts have resulted in long-lasting consequences, posing difficulties for unemployment rates to revert to levels seen before the crisis. Specifically, the structural changes seen in 2016 and 2022 indicate that the pandemic has had a long-term effect on youth unemployment rates, stopping them from returning to pre-pandemic levels. This research provides important understanding to the literature on hysteresis of youth unemployment in Türkiye, backing the idea that enduring structural problems continue to exist following shocks, impacting both overall and youth unemployment levels.
Keywords : doğal işsizlik oranı, genç işsizliği, Covid-19, işsizlik histerezisi