The Best Fit Flood Probability Distribution for Alibeyköy Basin in İstanbul, Türkiye

Authors : Mehmet DİKİCİ, Cevza KAZEZYILMAZ ALHAN, Bihrat ÖNÖZ

Pages : 40-51

Doi:10.46740/alku.1323214

View : 44 | Download : 28

Publication Date : 2023-09-01

Article Type : Research Paper

Abstract :Determination of peak flow rates is crucial in reducing the economic and social impact of flood. Therefore, the investigation of various methods for estimating flood is of paramount importance. Flood frequency analysis can be used as a practical method in predicting the peak flow values as the flood peaks have return periods that are typically much larger than the recording length. In this study, 7 different probability distributions insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(normal insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(N);, two-parameter lognormal insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(LN2);, three-parameter lognormal insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(LN3);, extreme value type I insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(Gumbel);, generalized extreme value insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(GEV);, Pearson Type III insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(P3); and Log-Pearson Type III insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(LP3);); are employed for flood frequency analysis of Alibeyköy Watershed using 44-years of measured annual maximum flow. K-S and PPCC tests are applied to determine the most suitable distributions to estimate the flood flow rate. Based on these tests, GEV and Gumbel distributions appear to be the most preferable distributions in flood flow estimation.
Keywords : taşkın frekans analizi, olasılık dağılımı, dönüş periyodu, taşkın debisi