Supervised Learning Approaches to Flight Delay Prediction

Authors : Mehmet Cemal ATLIOĞLU, Mustafa BOLAT, Murat ŞAHİN, Volkan TUNALI, Deniz KILINÇ

Pages : 1223-1231

Doi:10.16984/saufenbilder.710107

View : 16 | Download : 11

Publication Date : 2020-12-01

Article Type : Research Paper

Abstract :Delays in flights and other airline operations have significant consequences in quality of service, operational costs, and customer satisfaction. Therefore, it is important to predict the occurrence of delays and take necessary actions accordingly. In this study, we addressed the flight delay prediction problem from a supervised machine learning perspective. Using a real-world airline operations dataset provided by a leading airline company, we identified optimum dataset features for optimum prediction accuracy. In addition, we trained and tested 11 machine learning models on the datasets that we created from the original dataset via feature selection and transformation. CART and KNN showed consistently good performance in almost all cases achieving 0.816 and 0.807 F-Scores respectively. Similarly, GBM, XGB, and LGBM showed very good performance in most of the cases, achieving F-Scores around 0.810.
Keywords : air transportation, flight delay prediction, machine learning, data science