Forecasting Tourist Arrivals to Sangiran Using Fuzzy with Calendar Variations

Authors : Wınıta SULANDARİ, Yudho YUDHANTO, Sri SUBANTİ, Etik ZUKHRONAH, Subanar SUBANAR, Muhammad Hisyam LEE

Pages : 605-624

Doi:10.30519/ahtr.990903

View : 6 | Download : 8

Publication Date : 2022-12-06

Article Type : Research Paper

Abstract :Fuzzy method has been widely used in time series forecasting. However, the current fuzzy time models have not accommodated the holiday effects so that the forecasting error becomes large at certain moments. Regarding the problem, this study proposes two algorithms, extended of Chen’s and seasonal fuzzy time series method insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(FTS);, to consider the holiday effect in forecasting the monthly tourist arrivals to ancient human Sangiran Museum. Both algorithms consider the relationship between Eid holidays as the effect of calendar variations. The forecasting results obtained from the two proposed algorithms are then compared with those obtained from the Chen’s and the seasonal FTS. Based on the experimental results, the proposed method can reduce mean absolute error insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(MAE);, root mean square error insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(RMSE);, and mean absolute percentage error insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(MAPE); obtained from Chen’s method up to 61%, 61%, and 58%, respectively. Moreover, compared to that obtained from the seasonal FTS, the proposed method can reduce the MAE, RMSE, and MAPE values up to 35%, 36%, and 29%, respectively. The method proposed in this paper can be implemented to other time series with seasonal pattern and calendar variation effects.
Keywords : Fuzzy Time Series, Seasonal, Calendar Variations, Tourist Arrivals, Sangiran