The Ability of Early Warning Scores to Predict Mortality in Covid 19 Pneumonia

Authors : Yunus Emre ARIK, Hatice TOPCU

Pages : 571-578

Doi:10.53424/balikesirsbd.1246611

View : 40 | Download : 35

Publication Date : 2023-09-28

Article Type : Research Paper

Abstract :Objective: Early recognition of critical patients is crucial in emergency departments. Many scoring systems are used for it. This study aim determining the prognostic values of these scoring systems for Covid 19 patients. Materials and Methods: This retrospective study was performed between March 2020 -May 2020. 212 patient who have Covid 19 pneumonia were enrolled. National Early Warning Score insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(NEWS);, Modified Early Warning Score insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(MEWS); and quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(qSOFA); scores were calculated according to patients’ admission data. Receiver operating characteristic insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(ROC); analysis was used to determine the diagnostic values of scores and the optimum cut-off values were determined by Youden Index. Results: Twenty-three insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(10.84%); of 212 patients died and 34 insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(16%); were admitted to ICU. The AUC values of MEWS, NEWS, and qSOFA for predicting mortality in < 65 years old were 0.852 insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(95% confidence interval 0.708-0.997);, 0.882 insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(0.741-1.000); and 0.879 insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(0.768-0.990); and ≥65 years old 0.854insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(0.720-0.987);, 0.931insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(0.853-1.000);, 0.776insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(0.609-0.944); respectively. For ICU admission AUC values of MEWS, NEWS and qSOFA in <65 years old followed as; 0.882insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(0.783-0.981);, 0.914insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(0.817-1.000);, 0.868insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(0.764-0.973); and 0.845insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(0.725-0.965);, 0.926insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(0.854-0.998);, 0.815insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(0.676-0.954); in ≥ 65 years old. MEWS and qSOFA optimal cut-off values for mortality were ≥2 with 90.0% sensitivity 74.7% specificity and ≥1 with 90.9% sensitivity 78.1% specificity for <65 years, NEWS optimal cut-off is ≥6 with 91.7% sensitivity and 76.7% specificity for ≥ 65 years. Conclusion: These scores have good predictive value for mortality and ICU admission, but NEWS is better especially in ≥ 65 years old patient with Covid 19 pneumonia.
Keywords : tahmin, covid 19, pnömoni, ölüm oranı