A Prediction for Medical Supplies Consumptions During Coronavirus Disease 2019

Authors : İlkay SARAÇOĞLU, Ramazan YAMAN, Çağrı Serdar ELGÖRMÜŞ

Pages : 120-136

View : 46 | Download : 35

Publication Date : 2023-04-15

Article Type : Research Paper

Abstract :Extraordinary periods experienced since the beginning of human history have caused the formation of specific patterns. The current coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic we are experiencing has pro- vided critical viewpoint on the use and supply of preventive consumable materials like masks, gowns, and disinfectant. These are used as hygienic items to protect against infectious diseases and are assumed not to be very significant and easily managed in hospitals during normal periods. This study first assessed the supply, stock, and consumption processes for these protective and preventive items considering data from 2019, considered a normal period in hospital operation. In the second part of the study, the differences in supply and use of these items were modeled based on data dur- ing the development of the pandemic. To estimate the use of consumption of the protective equip- ment, number of doctors, healthcare workers, administrative personnel, patients, and surgeries were chosen as independent variables. Multivariate linear regression analysis was applied to examine the changes in the independent variables on protective consumables. It has been observed that dif- ferent variables are effective in estimating the consumption of each protective consumable. N95 mask, tie band surgical mask, and medical face mask consumptions were explained by the number of coronavirus disease patients and healthcare workers. Hand disinfectant and examination glove consumption were predicted with the number of doctor and coronavirus disease patients. Surgical glove prediction was estimated by using the number of surgeries. In this study, multivariate regres- sion models are proposed to help predict the consumption of protective consumables in hospitals.
Keywords : COVID 19, sağlık hizmeti sağlayıcıları, tıbbi sarf malzemeler, çoklu doğrusal regresyon, tahmin, koruyucu malzemeler