Examination of The Impact of Exchange Rate and Petroleum Prices On Inflation with The VAR Model: The Case of Turkey

Authors : Duygu ÇELİK

Pages : 154-166

Doi:10.47103/bilturk.1218022

View : 73 | Download : 79

Publication Date : 2023-08-02

Article Type : Research Paper

Abstract :In the study, the influence of EXC and OIL on INF was investigated by using the annual data of Turkey between 1995 and 2020. VAR model was preferred in the examination. In accordance with the findings obtained at the end of the examination, there is a strong positive affair amongst the variables and there is a long-period affair amongst the variants. The rate of adjustment towards long-term equilibrium is as fast as 56%. Exchange rate and petroleum prices affect inflation rates in the long run. In addition, while enhancements in the exchange rate alone affect inflation in the short period, enhancements in petroleum prices alone do not affect inflation in the short period. However, when the exchange rate and petroleum price increase together, it also affects inflation in the short period.
Keywords : Enflasyon, Petrol Fiyatları, Döviz Kuru, Türkiye