Participation of under-18-year-olds in the Private Pension System in Turkey: A Growth Estimation

Authors : Hasan MERAL, İsmail DİLEK

Pages : 395-407

Doi:10.26650/JEPR1167579

View : 15 | Download : 16

Publication Date : 2023-08-02

Article Type : Research Paper

Abstract :While the private pension system in Turkey reached 14.5 million participants and 433.4 billion TL insert ignore into journalissuearticles values($26.2 bn); assets by the end of 2022, the ratio of assets to GDP is only around 3%. The main reasons for the low asset/GDP ratio are the limited contributions and the low average seniority of contract. In 2021, Turkey implemented a regulation that allowed the participation of under-18-year-olds in private pension plans. The main purpose of the regulation was to increase the coverage rate of the system and to get people to save for longer. Although the regulation enabled the number of participants to increase in the short term, its longterm effects on private pension assets are uncertain. The aim of the study is to measure the effect of the participation of under-18-year-olds onprivate pension assets in Turkey. The univariate time series method was used to predict the growth of the private pension system in Turkey for the next ten years. The prediction relied on the data of the private pension system’s asset size, annual net annual contribution, growth rate, and rate of return between 2003 and 2021 in Turkey. The results showed that by the end of 10 years, the assets of under-18-year-olds would account for 7% of the total private pension assets and that 22% of the annual contribution would be paid by under-18-year-olds.
Keywords : Türkiyede bireysel emeklilik, 18 yaş altı bireysel emeklilik, emeklilik fon büyüklüğü tahmini, tek değişkenli zaman serisi