Three-Point Rule, Average Goals Per Game and Predictability in Football: A Long-Term Analysis with The Markov-Regime Switching Approach

Authors : Hale KULA, Ferit KULA, Zülbiye KAÇAY

Pages : 1032-1040

Doi:10.38021/asbid.1209634

View : 13 | Download : 4

Publication Date : 2022-12-23

Article Type : Research Paper

Abstract :In this study, the effects of the three-point rule in football on the average goals per game and the predictability of the matches were investigated by using the Markov-Regime Switching Model. The results obtained in the analysis covering 61 seasons and 3 teams in the example of the Turkish First Division Football League showed that the three-point rule increased the average goals per game, as expected. However, the effects of the three-point rule on the predictability of matches are different for each team.
Keywords : Futbol, Üç Puan Kuralı, Öngörülebilirlik, Football, Three Point Rule, Predictability