Demographic microsimulation model for Türkiye

Authors : Barış DULKADİR, Mehmet Ali ERYURT

Pages : 446-457

Doi:10.26466/opusjsr.1294301

View : 448 | Download : 342

Publication Date : 2023-07-31

Article Type : Research Paper

Abstract :This paper focuses on the use of microsimulation methodology to generate reliable population estimations for Türkiye. Microsimulation closely mimics life course dynamics and is therefore well-suited for predicting demographic changes. Using data from the 2018 Türkiye Demographic Health Survey, we developed a new microsimulation method that allows for greater customization and accuracy without relying on external patterns or models. The resulting population simulation includes age, education, marital status, usual residence, and labour force status for each individual until 2030. Our study demonstrates the flexibility and adaptability of microsimulation for demography and argues that it provides a coherent and meaningful way to estimate and project population attributes that other tools cannot provide. Ultimately, the dynamic simulation model has the potential to inform important policy decisions related to the population in Türkiye.
Keywords : Doğurganlık, Hanehalkı İşgücü Araştırması, Mikro simülasyon, Türkiye Nüfus ve Sağlık Araştırması, Veri Eşleştirme